改变卡车运输业
新技术, 即将出台的政策和不断变化的行业需求将影响像Carl Opelt这样的车队运营商的决策, G的共同所有人&威斯康星州尼尔斯维尔的卡车运输皇冠hga010安卓二维码., right, and his data consultant Joe Ebben with Mack Trucks.
作者:Megan Gosch
随着全球减少二氧化碳和温室气体的努力获得动力, tailpipe emissions are a core target. While emission standards narrow in on a zero-emissions future, 汽车行业正在通过先进技术和替代皇冠hga010安卓二维码提供新的解决方案. Most of those changes currently take aim at passenger and light-duty vehicles, but a transformation in the trucking industry is soon to follow.
混乱的中间
新技术和新政策将如何塑造农业供应链所依赖的重型汽车的未来? “事实是, 没人知道,加里·塔克说。, director of environmental health and safety, CHS运输及物流, “and the jury will be out for a while.”
塔克凭借多年的车队澳门皇冠赌场平台经验，跟踪整个运输行业的进展，并衡量可持续的大规模解决方案.
“We’re in a time the industry is calling ‘the messy middle,’塔克说。. “There are several emerging options when it comes to propulsion, 但这项技术还不能被普通的车队运营商大规模采用.”
While electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, 在政府信贷和激励措施的帮助下，汽车销售和充电基础设施继续增长, 电动汽车电池仍然太重，能量密度仍然太低，无法满足车队运营商对续航里程和重量的需求.
氢燃料电池技术可以提供急需的续航里程和可接受的车辆重量, 但是技术的进步, 价格和商业可用性目前仍然远远超出了普通车队的能力.
“Those technologies could be a fit further down the road,塔克说。. “十年以后, we could see maturing electric battery and hydrogen technologies, but we’re not likely to see a front-runner emerge until closer to 2040 or later. It’s too soon to say where the industry will settle.
“一旦领跑者出现, 要把目前在路上行驶的300万辆牵引车运走，还需要数年时间. It’s safe to say we’re in for a long ride.”
While a trucking transformation won’t happen overnight, a few key trends offer clues to the industry’s evolution.
Carbon reduction policy sets tall order
正如排放标准推动了对乘用车和轻型电动汽车的需求，并为替代燃料创造了新的市场一样, new rules will soon accelerate zero-emissions truck technology.
到2022年底，美国将在.S. 环境保护署(EPA)最终确定了其清洁卡车计划的第一条规则, which aims to reduce air pollutants emitted by heavy-duty trucks. 根据新规定, 重型卡车制造商被要求从2027年车型开始减少氮氧化物排放. 该指令旨在到2045年将这些车辆的氮氧化物排放量减少48%. The new rule is more than 80% stronger than current standards. 重型车辆也可能很快受到新的温室气体排放标准的约束，预计2027年及以后的车型.
“It’s a lofty goal the industry is unlikely to meet, 但也正是这种迫在眉睫的利害关系，促使行业内的每个人都在朝着更环保的技术努力, 塔克说.
“我们离这条规则只有四年的时间了，但我们还没有准备好大规模生产并符合新标准的解决方案. The industry doesn’t have an answer yet.”
学习如何 CHS提倡 for owners on carbon reduction policies.
接受实验
What happens when a standard is set with no long-term solution in sight?
“在我们等待长期零排放赢家出现的同时，我们必然会看到短期临时解决方案的混合方法,塔克说。.
“The next 10 years will be filled with experimentation,罗恩·贝蒂说, CHS refined fuels pricing and economics director. “We’ll see hydrogen fuel cell trucks on the road. We’ll start to see electrified trains and trucks working out the kinks. We’ll see lots of testing taking place across the board to see what works.”
This transition period is reminiscent of an earlier era, when the EPA enacted its 2010 emissions standards.
“与我们在2010年面临的标准相比，这些新规则对船队业务的颠覆性要大得多, but we could see solutions like hybrids, natural gas and propane emerge in the next phase of experimentation,塔克说。.
Before 2010 emissions standards took effect, 一些汽车运营商投资购买了2009年的车型，以便为他们的车队配备熟悉的技术, rather than taking a risk with newer technologies designed to cut emissions.
“No one wanted to be the guinea pig and take a risk with the unknown, 因此，他们故意购买并尽可能长时间地维护那些旧模型，以等待时机,塔克说。. “今天的供应市场很紧张, 但我完全预计，随着行业为2027年做准备，我们将看到更多类似的库存策略.”
Competing alternative energy resources
Batey指出，消费者对新技术日益增长的需求可能成为环境保护的一把双刃剑.
从建立一个完全连接的充电网络到开采制造电动汽车电池所需的稀土矿物, 为大规模解决方案提供必要的澳门皇冠赌场平台和基础设施，需要更多的选择.
“今天，电动汽车充电器、电池、风力涡轮机或电动机等资产都需要许多相同的材料. Global supply is limited by existing mines and refineries,” says Batey. “Growth in one part of the market could wind up pilfering resources from another. 与普通的电动汽车相比，一辆重型电动卡车将需要更多的矿物和更强大的充电澳门皇冠赌场平台, 但如果这些澳门皇冠赌场平台已经被用来满足一般消费者的需求, 这可能会减缓船队的进度.”
而汽车领域的澳门皇冠赌场平台激烈竞争可能还需要数年时间, Batey notes the dynamic could pose a larger issue as fleet technology evolves.
“今天, 我们不知道乘用车和车队最终是否会依赖同样的技术和澳门皇冠赌场平台, 但这种技术的融合可能会给重型车辆运营商提供技术带来额外的障碍.”
相应的投资
凭借多年的创新, 未来的探索和不确定性, 专家们一致认为，没有什么灵丹妙药可以预测船队技术的未来，或者船队所有者应该如何投资.
“今天, when most fleet operators invest in a diesel truck, 他们知道它可以做所有的事情——它有他们需要的范围和基础设施——而且没有必要考虑它将如何使用,塔克说。. 但, 他说, as the industry diversifies and emerging solutions come into play, 运营商需要有意识地考虑车辆的使用方式，并相应地进行投资.
“Producers will need to ask themselves, ‘How will this truck work for me? What kind of range do I actually need?’ If your truck will be hauling crops from on-farm storage to a nearby terminal, an electric vehicle could someday be an ideal fit. If you’ll be making longer hauls regularly, maybe a hybrid or fuel cell or propane vehicle will be your best fit,塔克说。.
“There’s no more one-size-fits-all approach. It’s a new way of thinking about your investment, but the better you understand how you’re utilizing your trucks today, the faster you’ll be prepared to act as new solutions emerge.”
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